Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 7.778977 8.955123 10.224877 11.694586 13.345762 15.140342 17.235139
2025-12-28 6.222742 7.846246 9.737411 12.090599 14.926651 18.220168 22.319103
2026-01-04 5.366834 7.178118 9.393441 12.278645 15.910629 20.302505 25.983191
2026-01-11 4.592376 6.486122 8.908133 12.195487 16.497960 21.889869 29.103188
2026-01-18 3.986477 5.909508 8.467825 12.067509 16.939661 23.234724 31.900119
2026-01-25 3.539984 5.486382 8.170691 12.072696 17.515336 24.740684 34.939975
2026-02-01 3.199868 5.167397 7.972049 12.171657 18.190586 26.377219 38.194804
2026-02-08 2.860972 4.808849 7.675793 12.092602 18.588594 27.629118 40.956420
2026-02-15 2.562453 4.476778 7.382217 11.981249 18.912445 28.768490 43.585568
2026-02-22 2.347685 4.251954 7.225582 12.051309 19.488166 30.271811 46.772721
2026-03-01 2.217325 4.149596 7.245702 12.384000 20.461842 32.379844 50.903854
2026-03-08 1.994519 3.868099 6.955088 12.203148 20.631008 33.296713 53.311091
2026-03-15 1.722665 3.476675 6.457650 11.661924 20.216607 33.333535 54.435653
2026-03-22 1.634140 3.404500 6.488166 11.985572 21.188506 35.521562 58.902464
2026-03-29 1.535806 3.302892 6.457074 12.197745 21.981870 37.454786 63.038844
2026-04-05 1.400066 3.115480 6.258542 12.106075 22.262949 38.585432 65.959085
2026-04-12 1.273837 2.932663 6.051879 11.982068 22.475459 39.604838 68.729288
2026-04-19 1.177229 2.798931 5.923716 11.986109 22.900333 40.976963 72.104312
2026-04-26 1.101262 2.699744 5.851802 12.084847 23.489222 42.634736 75.993321
2026-05-03 1.011287 2.560703 5.691165 12.006145 23.756379 43.760588 79.041596
2026-05-10 0.926210 2.422788 5.520855 11.895538 23.955712 44.772453 81.926876
2026-05-17 0.867198 2.337049 5.447963 11.965143 24.481304 46.354340 85.813295
2026-05-24 0.837716 2.316703 5.507419 12.295763 25.501090 48.823378 91.280411